The NBG decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.25%
In May, annual inflation stood at 5.7 percent. The increase in
inflation relative to the 3 percent target was mainly driven by a
significant increase in energy resources prices. These inflationary
pressures mainly reflect external factors, including elevated
volatility in international energy prices and supply-side disruptions.
At the same time, measures of relatively sticky prices, which better
reflect long-term inflation expectations, have shown a slight
acceleration in the recent period. In particular, core inflation
(excluding food, energy and tobacco) stood at 3.5 percent in May,
while services inflation was 3.8 percent. Although these indicators
remain significantly below headline inflation, their recent dynamics
continue to point to risks of strengthening second-round effects. On
the other hand, international commodity markets have recently
experienced a notable correction in energy prices. Amid growing
optimism regarding the prospect of a peace agreement between the US
and Iran, international oil prices have declined significantly from
their peak levels. This is consistent with the NBG’s central
scenario. In particular, the central scenario assumed that strong
pressure on inflation caused by the external shock would occur in the
second quarter of this year, after which its impact would gradually
ease. Therefore, according to the central scenario, inflation will
continue its downward tendency from the second quarter of 2026 and
will average 4.9 percent in 2026, and will gradually return to the
target in the medium term.Economic activity remains strong. The
economy grew by 6.2 percent in April 2026, while average growth in the
first four months of the year reached 8.3 percent. Notably,
high-productive sectors remain a key driver of economic growth,
partially offsetting demand-side inflationary pressures.Global
uncertainty remains elevated. The main sources of this uncertainty
remain the further evolution of the ongoing conflict in the Middle
East, developments in international energy prices, and the timeline
for the restoration of damaged infrastructure. Therefore, the MPC, in
addition to the central scenario, considered both high and
low-inflation risk scenarios.In the event of the realization of the
high-inflation risk scenario, fundamental processes require a higher
trajectory of the monetary policy rate than the central scenario. The
high-inflation scenario assumes a further escalation of geopolitical
tension over a prolonged period, which would result in additional
damage to infrastructure and a delay in the recovery process. Against
this backdrop, commodity prices in the international market will
increase further and the disruption of supply chains will become
widespread. As a result, the supply-side inflationary shock would
amplify in Georgia, strengthening second-round effects, and ultimately
inflation would be higher than in the central scenario.On the other
hand, under the low-inflation risk scenario considered by the MPC, the
realization of the risks would allow a faster normalization of
monetary policy rate compared to the central scenario. The
low-inflation risk scenario assumes that a peace agreement in the
Middle East would lead to an immediate stabilization of prices at
international commodity markets. In such a case, pressures on energy
prices would ease rapidly, which would be reflected in lower domestic
inflation. At the same time, Georgia’s external position remains
robust. Despite the significant external shock, FX inflows continue to
be strong, while the country’s sovereign risk premium remains low,
supporting the stability of the real effective exchange rate.
Moreover, the continued relative weakness of the U.S. dollar in global
markets serves as an additional supportive factor. If these conditions
persist, imported goods inflation is likely to be lower than expected,
and, as a result, headline inflation will converge to the target more
rapidly than in the central scenario.As a result of the ongoing
macroeconomic analysis and consideration of existing risks, the MPC
considered it appropriate to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged
at 8.25 percent. The NBG continues to closely monitor ongoing
developments and the intensity of their transmission to the domestic
market. If inflationary shocks stemming from geopolitical tensions
become even more prolonged and/or their magnitude would amplify the
risks of second-round effects, the MPC will continue to moderately
increase the monetary policy rate. Thereafter, once the inflationary
shock dissipates, the NBG will begin a gradual normalization of the
policy stance.The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will
be held on July 29, 2026.
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