S&P upgrades GCAP's rating to BB with stable outlook
23% from March 2025 to March 2026 to GEL5.04 billion (about $1.87
billion). This growth was largely driven by a 43% rise in the value of
Lion Finance Group, Georgia Capital’s largest and only listed
holding, while the private portfolio value also grew by 18%. Portfolio
rotation, such as the sale of the water utility business, also
affected the performance of the private portfolio. In the first three
months of 2026, the total portfolio value reduced by 0.6%, due to some
contraction in Lion Finance Group’s share price, the recent
divestment, and dividends paid. However, this was partially offset by
robust performance in the private portfolio, which was up 3%.Value
creation was most pronounced in the retail (pharmacy) business (up
6.1%) and the insurance business (up 7.6%), while the emerging and
other companies segment weighed on the overall portfolio value, as it
did in 2025, which may lead to some divestments in the future. Over
the three months, the net asset value (NAV) decreased by 0.8%,
although S&P notes that it has increased by 33% since March 2025.“We
expect Georgia Capital to maintain low leverage, supported by
continued disciplined debt management. As part of its GEL700 million
capital return program, Georgia Capital had used GEL274 million as of
April 2026 to redeem a portion of its outstanding bond (which equates
to about $100 million of the total principal of $150 million). We
expect to see continued use of cash or potential proceeds from the
sale of smaller private assets for debt redemption in the near term,
demonstrating the company’s commitment to deleveraging. Furthermore,
the target NCC ratio of 10% over the cycle supports our view of the
company’s disciplined approach to capital allocation.According to
the company’s policies, an NCC ratio of 10%-40% will trigger
tactical share buybacks or investments, an NCC ratio of below 10%
could generate more substantial share buybacks or investments, and an
NCC ratio of above 40% would lead the company to preserve cash. As of
March 31, 2026, the NCC ratio was 3.9%. A significant increase is not
in our base case nor would we view it as commensurate with our rating.
Although the ratio slightly increased from 2.3% in December 2025, due
to a $50 million share buyback and cancellation program announced in
February 2026, it is in line with allocation expectations. The
company's NCC ratio includes planned investments, announced share
buybacks, and a contingency/liquidity buffer.Our adjusted LTV ratio
for Georgia Capital as of March 31, 2026, was 0.4% (excluding future
share buybacks or potential equity investments that are uncommitted).
We think that the company could navigate relatively volatile market
conditions that affect the valuation of its assets while maintaining
an adjusted LTV ratio well below 10%”, the document reads.One of the
main limitations of S&P's assessment of Georgia Capital's business
risk remains its high concentration in Georgia and significant
reliance on a single listed asset, Lion Finance Group, which accounts
for 47.2% of the total portfolio value and owns 16.6% of LFG
itself.According to S&P, the weighted average credit quality of the
companies invested in by the group corresponds to the level of "B+".
1781178316