NBG Decided To Keep The Monetary Policy Rate Unchanged At 8%
Annual inflation remains below the target level of 3%. In February
2025, the overall price level increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while
core inflation stood at 2.0%. Inflation for domestically produced
goods and services, which tend to be stickier and better reflects
long-term inflation expectations, remains aligned with the target
level, reaching 3.0% in February. Compared to previous months, the
moderate increase in inflation and its convergence toward the target
can be attributed, on the one hand, to the realization of risks in
international markets. Specifically, the increase in international
food commodity prices has been partly passed on to the domestic
market, leading to a slight rise in inflation compared to the previous
month. On the other hand, the moderate increase in inflation is
related to the fading base effect of the reduction in electricity
tariffs.Notably, based on data from January-February 2025, current
dynamics are largely in line with the central scenario assumptions of
the NBG’s latest forecast. Against the backdrop of increased
pressure from international markets, inflation is gradually converging
toward the target level and is expected to be close to it in the first
half of 2025. Subsequently, partly due to the base effect, inflation
will temporarily exceed the target before stabilizing around 3% in the
medium term. However, economic activity appears stronger than
initially expected. According to preliminary data, economic growth in
January stood at 11.1%. At this stage, according to the latest
estimates from the NBG, economic potential remains high, alongside
strong aggregate demand, which partially offsets demand pressures on
prices. Robust aggregate demand is also supported by credit activity,
primarily driven by business loans, which contribute positively to
economic potential growth.Amid elevated global uncertainty, the
Monetary Policy Committee has, on one hand, considered a
high-inflation risk scenario, where the realization of fundamental
factors would require a higher path for the policy rate compared to
the central scenario. Recently rising global uncertainty has been
largely driven by tariff policies in international markets. Such
policies highlight signs of economic fragmentation at the
international level, intensifying the likelihood of supply chain
disruptions and the emergence of a global high-inflation environment.
On the domestic front, demand-driven price pressures remain a notable
concern.On the other hand, the Monetary Policy Committee has
considered a low-inflation risk scenario, where the realization of
fundamental factors would require a lower trajectory for the monetary
policy rate compared to the central scenario. In the wake of global
uncertainty and tariff policies, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) is
weakening. Against this backdrop, the appreciated exchange rate will
exert downward pressure on headline inflation through imported goods
inflation.As a result of macroeconomic analysis and the assessment of
existing risks, the Monetary Policy Committee has considered it
optimal to adopt a cautious approach toward further normalizing the
monetary policy rate, keeping it unchanged at 8%. Upcoming decisions
on the monetary policy rate will depend on updated macroeconomic
forecast scenarios and risk assessments.The NBG will use all available
instruments to maintain price stability. This means keeping the
overall price level increase close to the 3% target over the medium
term.The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will be held on
May 7, 2025.
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