Finance

Inflationary expectations have increased in business circles

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Tbilisi (GBC) - According to the National Bank of Georgia's survey results, based on economic activity participants, inflationary expectations for the one-year period have increased in January compared to December. On one hand, there is an increase in the number of respondents who expect price increases within the range of 6%-8% over the next year. On the other hand, there is a decrease in the number of respondents who expect consumer price changes in a lower interval, within the range of 0%-2%.

According to the same survey, inflationary expectations for the three-year period have increased in January compared to December. On one hand, compared to December, there is an increase in the number of respondents who expect price changes within the range of 6%-8% growth over the next three years. On the other hand, there is a decrease in the number of respondents who expect price changes within the range of 2%-4% and 4-6%.

As of the survey respondents, expectations for price increases on their own products/services over a 1-year period have decreased. Specifically, compared to December, there is a decrease in January in the number of respondents who expect price increases on their products to be more than 8%. At the same time, there is an increase in the number of respondents who expect price changes in a relatively lower interval, within the range of 4%-6%.

According to the same survey, expectations for wage growth have decreased in January compared to December. Specifically, there is a decrease in the number of respondents who expect wage changes within the range of 10%-20%. At the same time, there is an increase in the number of respondents who expect wage changes within the range of -10%-0%.

The respondents note, that the efficiency of resource utilization for production in companies (actual use of company resources compared to maximum utilization) has increased in January compared to December.

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Turnava met with representatives of the World Bank expert mission

The summary meeting, led by Miguel Eduardo Sánchez Martín, the World Bank Programme Leader for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions in the South Caucasus with Natia Turnava, the central bank Governor, centred on projects related to the payment system, with an emphasis on their benefits and integration with international systems.Participants expressed their commitment to continuing cooperation in both existing and emerging areas.As part of the mission, the World Bank experts conducted a series of workshops for NBG employees, focusing on aspects of the new instant payment system's implementation. The sessions were designed to equip staff with the necessary knowledge and tools to facilitate this transition.During their stay in Georgia, the experts also engaged with stakeholders from the domestic public and financial sectors, including commercial banks and payment service providers, to foster collaboration and share insights.

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Central Banking, Capital Finance International publications highlight...

Central Banking noted Turnava, appointed by Mikheil Kavelashvili, was the first woman to hold the position in the Bank’s history, while CFI highlighted her confirmation as a “clear commitment to policy continuity and financial stability”."A seasoned economist with extensive experience in both Government and the private sector, Turnava steps into the role at a pivotal moment, as Georgia seeks to navigate global economic and financial volatility”, the article reads.In her prior role as the Acting Governor of the NBG, she was credited with implementing “effective” monetary policies that led to “low inflation” rates and “financial stability”, CFI said."During her tenure as an Acting Governor, the Georgian lari maintained its stability - a particularly challenging task given that Georgia operates under a floating exchange rate regime”, CFI said.The British publication also emphasised the importance of Turnava’s governance in restoring investor confidence, which it said was seen as “key” for Georgia’s long-term economic resilience.

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Georgia takes over Energy Community presidency in ceremony in Vienna

The event was attended by the Director of the organisation, Artur Lorkowski, representatives from the body’s secretariat and diplomatic missions of member states.Genadi Arveladze, Georgia’s Deputy Economy Minister, addressed the event to emphasise the importance of the leadership role.“This is not only a responsibility but also an opportunity to encourage regional cooperation, strengthen energy security, and advance the process of transition to green energy”, he said.In his address, Arveladze highlighted focal points for Georgia’s term, including energy efficiency, alignment of legislative frameworks with EU energy regulations, and enhancement of overall energy security. He underscored the role of energy in ensuring economic stability and fostering investments and regional partnerships.“Our commitment to modernising the energy sector, aligning it with European standards, and promoting regional cooperation remains unwavering. In 2024, we made a significant advancement towards our goal for the country’s electricity market by launching day-ahead and intraday markets. This step lays the groundwork for a smooth transition to a competitive electricity market”, he said.The Deputy Minister further elaborated on ongoing projects, specifically the Black Sea submarine cable, an international project that aims to create a new transmission route to deliver green energy from the South Caucasus to Europe. He said progress was being made with the involvement of participating countries.In his turn, Lorkowski praised Georgia’s recent energy reforms and its “leading position” among member states in implementing energy initiatives.Georgia joined the Energy Community in 2017.

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PPI Up By 1% In January M-O-M

The prices for mining and quarrying decreased by 3.8 percent compared to December 2024, resulting in a -0.24 percentage point contribution to the overall monthly PPI change. In the same period, the prices for manufactured products increased by 0.9 percent, contributing 0.69 percentage points to the monthly index change. Within the group, a noteworthy price increase was registered for food products (0.7 percent) and chemicals and chemical products (5.2 percent). Besides, the prices increased for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning by 5.3 percent, contributing 0.55 percentage points to the monthly index change.The annual PPI rate was mainly affected by price changes for the following products: Mining and quarrying: the prices were 24.1 percent higher, contributing 1.36 percentage points to the overall annual index change. Within the group, the prices were higher for the subgroup of metal ores (28.0 percent); Manufactured products: the prices increased by 6.1 percent, contributing 4.89 percentage points to the overall annual index increase. There was a notable increase in the prices for the following subgroups: beverages (8.8 percent) and basic metals (14.9 percent); Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning: the annual price increase amounted to 8.0 percent, which contributed 0.87 percentage points to the annual index change; Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation services: the annual price increase amounted to 2.5 percent, which contributed 0.06 percentage points to the annual index growth.

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Prices for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning increased by 5...

In the mentioned period, the prices for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning increased by 5.6 percent.Compared to January 2024, the DPPI increased by 3.8 percent. The prices went up for mining and quarrying by 11.1 percent, for manufactured products by 2.8 percent, for electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning by 8.8 percent and the prices for water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation services remained unchanged.

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Staff Costs Increased to the banking sector

The sector's staff maintenance cost in 2024 amounted to 1.294 billion GEL (2023 - 1.117 billion).This expense falls under the banks' non-interest expenses, which includes staff compensation along with inventory and operational costs, and amounts to 2.237 billion GEL as of 01.01.2025. The banking sector's staff cost (personnel expenses/income) is 22%.Banks with non-interest income (commissions, currency exchange)

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Cartu's profit decreased

As of February 1, 667 million GEL equivalent loans were issued in foreign currency. Last year, it was 506 million GEL.The dollarization of deposits has also increased, although insignificantly. As of 01/2025, it is 83.5% (01/2024 – 83%).Cartu started 2025 with a profit of 1.6 million GEL (01/2024 -3.3 million: -51%Y.Y).

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The Unemployment Rate In Georgia Increased In 4Q24 Y-O-Y

In 4Q2024, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, the number of hired employees increased by 20.1 thousand persons (2.1%) and reached 978.5 thousand, while the number of self-employed – by 19.7 thousand (4.8%) and equaled to 433.5 thousand. In the same period, the number of unemployed decreased by 14.7 thousand (5.9%) and equaled 233.9 thousand.In 4Q2024, the labour force participation rate (share of the labour force in the total population aged 15 and older) increased by 0.6 percentage points compared to the corresponding period of the previous year and became 54.9 percent, while the employment rate increased 1.1 percentage points and amounted to 47.1 percent. In urban settlements, the labour force participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage points compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, while in rural settlements – 1.2 percentage points. The employment rate increased by 1.0 percentage points in urban settlements, in rural settlements – 1.4 percentage points and equaled 48.5 and 45.2 percent, respectively.In 4Q2024, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, the share of hired employed in the total number of employed decreased by 0.5 percentage points and equaled 69.3 percent.In 4Q2024, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, the unemployment rate decreased in urban settlements by 1.4 percentage points while in rural settlements – by 0.6 percentage points.Traditionally, the unemployment rate is higher for men than for women. In the IV quarter of 2024, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, this rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points for women and by 0.1 percentage points for men, equaling 11.1 and 16.7 percent, respectively.The labour force participation rate is higher for men than for women. In the IV quarter of 2024, the indicator for women was 45.1 percent and for men – 66.3 percent. The labour force participation rate for women increased by 0.7 percentage points, while for men it increased by 0.4 percentage points, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.In the IV quarter of 2024, the employment rate for women increased by 1.7, while for men – by 0.4 percentage points, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

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