Tbilisi (GBC) - According to the NBG, the GEL maintained its October trend in November. Demand has decreased by GEL 180 million, after a decrease of GEL 105 million in October, and by the beginning of December, cash in circulation has decreased to GEL 6.27 billion.
According to analysts, the NBG currently has a natural margin of appreciation, taking into account the seasonal factor, the NBG knows that demand for GEL will increase before the New Year.
Whether or not it has been able to purchase more currency since November 25, the NBG will provide us with information again if it deems it appropriate, as it did on November 25 regarding the purchase of $85.7 million, after the September-October foreign exchange spending (up to $698 million).
The combination of the NBG's steps makes expert Marina Guledani think that the recent decisions were precisely to compensate for the country's isolation and sanctions. She expressed doubts about this during her visit to BMG.
The NBG knew about the interest in de-escalation and therefore would not have allowed it, because the choice is lustrated. The NBG knows that the risks are already realized. The cessation of Western capital is inevitable and therefore introduces a penalty rate that is tripled 3 weeks after the elections, explaining the need with a European directive. Guledani believes that the NBG expects resistance from the banking sector, which is part of a unified international financial system and will not be able to adapt to a local regulator.
In October, the system was deprived of up to 600 million GEL of liquidity through the NBG's foreign exchange auctions (the NBG sold $213.5 million in 4 auctions). More than 1 billion through Bmatch trading and other instruments.
In November, there was a decrease of 840 million GEL through government conversions. The balance of overnight loans, after an increase of 2 billion, decreased by 300 million in November and decreased by 375 million in December, respectively, falling below 2.5 billion by several hundred. In addition, 500 million GEL was issued through a one-month instrument in November.