Tbilisi (GBC) - TBC Capital publishes a macroeconomic update – “Why is the GEL strengthening?”, which states that based on the main sources of net FX inflows, TBC Capital is not betting on even somewhat large GEL swings in the near term;In fact, unlike most market participants, the recent slight GEL appreciation came as no surprise.
Once again, to illustrate the relative importance of FX flows, TBC Capital highlights the major sources (4Q23-3Q24):
- imports of goods ($14.7 bn);
- exports of goods ($8.3 bn); gross tourism revenues w/o migration (c. $4.0 bn);
- migration impact (c. $1.1 bn);
- tourism outflows ($490 mn);
- net remittances ($4.0 bn);
- net dividends ($1.1 bn);
- net reinvestment ($1.0 bn);
- net FDI without reinvestment (-$147 mn);
- net portfolio investments,
- loans and other investments by sector: government ($309 mn),
- private sector ($192 mn),
- commercial banks (-$133 mn).
Which of these flows are most impacted? Tourism inflows, including the import component of up to 45%; demand for durables, which are almost entirely imported in Georgia; and investments;
While looking at the latest data, including February, the impact appears to be growth-negative, especially on imports, but not GEL-negative;
Furthermore, as of early February, TBC capital observes some recovery in tourism revenues, while the demand on durables has remained subdued;
Not to forget the so-called good time buffer, estimated at around or more than a billion USD, stemming from higher deposit dollarization and credit larization, with the latter stocks, as of Dec-24, standing at a sizeable $12.6 bn (USD equivalent) for GEL credit, $9.6 bn for FX credit, $9.8 bn for GEL deposits and $10.9 bn for FX deposits;
In this regard, lately TBC Capital has observed no significant further deposit conversions, while, on the credit side, FX loans have relatively accelerated, which is GEL-positive;
Last but not least, in the context of the GEL/EUR/USD strategy, considering heightened uncertainty, TBC Capital reiterates our recommendation for diversification and for staying medium-to-long run indicators-oriented, so as to avoid short-term overreaction, which often, if not always, has led to significant losses.