The GEL will not depreciate in the summer

750,000 million is 250,000 away from the newly increased limit for foreign currency lending of up to a million.The banking sector expects lending to be activated. According to investment bankers' analysis, the dangerous regulation will work the opposite way, it will revive the market more, including with the development sector slowing down and the transition to a waiting mode, businesses & clients who intend to take out a loan but are in no hurry are rushing to make it to August 1, before the limit is raised.In every research publication, including the monetary policy document, the National Bank of Georgia constantly notes that it monitors the market and makes decisions based on this, whether to tighten or ease regulation or increase or decrease the monetary policy rate. Accordingly, the market's agitated behavior was not absent before each increase in the limit.December was the peak of foreign currency loan issuance, why? Because the limit was raised from January. Well, December is already an active month, especially in terms of activating the real estate market, although the limit also had an effect. In December (2024), the equivalent of 2.4 billion GEL was issued in foreign currency loans. In the previous and subsequent months (November, January), respectively, 1.5 billion GEL and 1.13 billion GEL were issued in USD and EUR, respectively. Disbursements for the period 04/2024-04/2025 (13 months) are 20.5 billion GEL (equivalent in foreign currency). Monthly disbursements are within the range of -1.4 – 1.7 billion GEL, if we exclude the peak December, by 2.4 billion.The new limit should reduce foreign currency lending by $150 million. The regulator’s previous move (increasing to $500,000) was designed to reduce annual lending by more than $100 million, while the previous one (to $400,000) was designed to reduce it by $180 million.Davit Rusia, analytical director of the Banking Association, avoided spoiling the festive mood of the 30th anniversary of the lari for the public. During his visit to 1TV. GE, he did not say that the regulation would also apply to lari loans, which is usually expressed in an increase in lending rates. He suggested that we wait longer for a pleasant change.“Let's hope for the best. Let's observe the summer period. What financial inflows will be, how will it affect the purchasing power of the lari,” - Rusia drew attention to the 42/43% dollarization ratio of loans, which has stubbornly maintained its position for a long time and is having a hard time getting down to 41%.According to his expectations, if the banks do not find a new source of long-term lari, it will be difficult for the ratio to move from its place for a long time.According to him, only the National Bank of Georgia and the Ministry of Finance can create a new source. And there is another source that is not unlimited, but is both voluminous and long-term. Rusia means the funds of the pension fund by accumulation, the money that potential borrowers must lend to banks so that banks lend to us at the optimal rate. If we follow the pension criteria, the fund should lend at least 14%, because the fund is also profit-oriented. When investing in lari bonds, it looked at the 13% limit and chose to buy loan bonds based on this.Considering that banks manage to attract currency from the international capital market at 4-5% (in US dollars) and 3-3.5% (in EUR, lari still turns out to be more expensive. The Banking Association of Georgia sees the possibility of balancing in co-financing the interest. The financier should be either the National Bank or the Ministry of Finance, or both.

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Given that TBC Bank Georgia, the main subsidiary of TBC PLC, accounts for the majority of TBC PLC’s assets and revenues, and that their financial metrics are broadly aligned, TBC PLC’s Ba3 long-term issuer rating reflects the standalone creditworthiness of TBC Bank Georgia.The rating is positioned one notch below TBC Bank’s ba2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA. The one-notch difference between the holding company and its principal operating subsidiary is primarily driven by the structural subordination of TBC PLC’s senior unsecured creditors to those of TBC Bank Georgia.This rating distinction is consistent with Moody’s credit rating methodology and is a common practice for bank holding company structures.

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Buyback and cancellation programme which was announced on 25 February 2025 as an extension of the GEL 73.4 million share buyback and cancellation programme announced on 22 August 2024 (the "Buyback Programme").The total number of shares cancelled since the launch of the Buyback Programme in August 2024 is 831,167. Number of ordinary shares held in treasury cancelled - 94,892.Total number of ordinary shares held in treasury following the cancellation - 10,000.At the time of cancellation (May 29), there were 10,000 shares in the treasury, and since then 5,000-5,000 shares have been redeemed in two installments, and as of today, 20,000 common shares are placed in the treasury.

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As of the document, the annual inflation rate was mainly influenced by price changes for the following groups:Food and non-alcoholic beverages: the prices in the group increased by 8.3 percent, contributing 2.82 percentage points to the overall annual inflation rate. Within the group the prices increased for the following subgroups: oils and fats (22.5 percent), vegetables (17.6 percent), coffee, tea and cocoa (15.4 percent), mineral waters, soft drinks, fruit and vegetable juices (10.6 percent), sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery (9.5 percent), bread and cereals (8.4 percent), fish (6.9 percent), milk, cheese and eggs (6.9 percent), meat (2.2 percent). At the same time, prices decreased for fruit and grapes (-4.7 percent);Health: the prices increased by 9.0 percent, contributing 0.75 percentage points to the overall index. The prices were higher for the following subgroups: out-patient services (10.2 percent), medical products, appliances and equipment (8.3 percent), hospital services (7.6 percent);Miscellaneous goods and services: the prices for the group increased by 5.9 percent, contributing 0.29 percentage points to the overall index. Within the group, the prices were higher mainly for the following subgroups: personal effects n.e.c. (20.7 percent), insurance (8.7 percent), financial services n.e.c. (5.4 percent), personal care (2.7 percent);Transport: the prices for the group decreased by 4.5 percent, contributing -0.54 percentage points to the overall index. Within the group the prices decreased for operation of personal transport equipment (-7.4 percent). At the same time, the prices increased for purchase of vehicles (0.9 percent) and transport services (0.7 percent).

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According to the President of the NBG, the communication between the NBG and the IMF has never stopped and cooperation in the field of technical assistance has been ongoing. Even when the current program was suspended, paused, but at the same time it has not stopped.As for her, the Fund has provided and continues to provide assistance in many areas, and a mission is still here.Within the framework of the Article 4 review, multilateral discussions are also possible, including on the prospects of a new program.The President of the NBG recalled her visit to Washington, where a great desire to continue cooperation was expressed on both sides.

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According to the Ministry, the expelled individuals were citizens of Iran, India, Turkey, Turkmenistan, China, Egypt, Burundi, Kazakhstan, Jordan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Iraq.“Under current legislation, the individuals have been banned from re-entering Georgia. The Migration Department is responsible for combating illegal migration, including identifying and expelling foreign citizens residing in the country without legal grounds,” the Ministry stated.

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Lion Finance Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 66.80/share (- 0.07% w/w and +11.33% m/m). More than 138k shares traded in the range of GBP 65.15 - 68.00/share. Average daily traded volume was 59k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 0.31% of its capitalization.TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 44.65/share (- 2.51% w/w and -5.60% m/m). More than 250k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 44.00 - 47.35/share. Average daily traded volume was 84k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.45% of its capitalization.Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 18.74/share (-1.47% w/w and +15.68% m/m). More than 164k shares traded in the range of GBP 18.44 - 19.62/share. Average daily traded volume was 79k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 0.42% of its capitalization. 

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According to Turnava, the Lari is one of the most vital symbols of Georgia’s economic independence and sovereignty.“On April 9, 1991, following the restoration of Georgia’s statehood, we established an independent monetary and credit system. Since that time, preparations have been underway to design, name, and define the technical parameters of our national currency. On October 2, 1995, the Lari was officially declared the sole legal tender throughout Georgia,” she recalled.Turnava further emphasized that the National Bank of Georgia, in collaboration with regional central banks, consistently addresses various challenges, including inflation. She noted that Georgia has successfully maintained low inflation rates despite the complexities of a small, open economy influenced by external factors.“Nevertheless, we recognize that Georgia’s economy is small and highly open, making us sensitive to external influences. Consequently, we focus heavily on risk management, prudent monetary policy, reducing high dollarization levels, fostering innovation through new financial technologies, and tackling other pressing issues,” she explained.The NBG president underscored the importance of strengthening regional cooperation among financial systems and regulators to effectively respond to challenges such as global fragmentation and regional integration.The international conference, attended by over 300 guests from 30 countries, is organized as part of the 30th anniversary celebrations of the Georgian Lari. Participants will engage in discussions on the challenges and opportunities facing the global financial system.

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