Demand for Georgia’s Eurobonds Exceeded Supply by 5.5 Times – Khutsishvili

As the first stage of the revision, Geostat assessed the consistency of the main components of population change – births, deaths and migration – with the results of the 2014 and 2024 censuses. The analysis showed that existing data on natural population movements were based on sufficiently robust and reliable administrative sources. Accordingly, birth and death figures remained unchanged during the recalculation of the intercensal period, while discrepancies identified between the censuses were adjusted through a revision of the migration component.The need to revise migration figures was driven by several methodological and practical factors.First, different time criteria are used to determine usual residence and migrant status in population censuses and current migration statistics. The population census applies a 12-month residence criterion, whereas current migration statistics use a six-month threshold. This difference means that the same individual's movement may not always be classified in the same way under census and current migration statistics.The second important factor relates to the country's territorial specifics. Comprehensive administrative information on population movements between occupied territories and territories controlled by the Georgian authorities is unavailable, and such movements are therefore not reflected in current international migration statistics.The third factor concerns the methodology used to produce current migration statistics. The main administrative source for migration data consists of individual records of state border crossings. However, crossing the state border does not in itself mean that a person has changed their usual place of residence. Therefore, classifying administrative border-crossing records as migration events requires the application of time-based criteria, algorithms and estimation methods. In addition, some estimation coefficients and distribution parameters used in current migration statistics were based on migration structures and behavioural patterns established during the previous census period.It should also be noted that migration is one of the most volatile components of demographic processes and responds significantly to economic, political, social and external factors. Particularly substantial changes were recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic and following subsequent developments in the region. Both the intensity of international movements and the duration of stays, frequency of repeated movements and behaviour of different migrant groups changed.Methodology Used to Revise the Historical Data SeriesThe recalculation of demographic indicators was based on a combination of internationally recognised and scientifically grounded statistical methods, including:- Cohort-Component Method, used to recalculate population figures across successive age and sex groups.- Demographic Balancing Method, applied to reconcile population changes with births, deaths, immigration and emigration.- Multi-source Data Integration Method, used to combine population census data, civil registration records, administrative data and other supplementary sources within a unified analytical framework, according to their respective purposes and quality.- Geographic Harmonisation/Reclassification Adjustment Method, used to account for changes in administrative boundaries and settlement classifications to ensure comparability over time.The population recalculation was not limited to the country's overall figures. Revisions were also carried out at the regional, municipal, urban and rural settlement levels, as well as for cities and towns.It should be noted that the revisions covered population figures for 2016–2024 and migration data for 2015–2024.Population Growth Between 2015 and 2025Between 2015 and 2025, Georgia's population increased by 5.6%, or 208,500 people, from 3,721,900 to 3,930,400.At the national level, population growth remained relatively moderate between 2015 and 2021, increasing by 63,500 people, or 1.7%, over this period. As of January 1, 2022, the population had declined by 25,000 compared with the previous year. The trend subsequently changed significantly: between 2022 and 2025, Georgia's population increased by 169,900 people, or 4.5%.An analysis of the components of the demographic balance provides a more accurate explanation of annual population changes. Population figures as of January 1 reflect the combined results of natural increase and net migration during the preceding calendar year. Between 2015 and 2019, natural population growth remained positive, although it gradually declined, while net migration generally remained moderate.From 2020, natural population growth turned negative. In 2020, negative natural growth (-4,000 people) and positive net migration (+19,100 people) resulted in an increase of approximately 15,000 in the population as of January 1, 2021. In 2021, negative natural growth (-14,000 people) combined with negative net migration (-11,000 people), resulting in a population decline of 25,000 as of January 1, 2022.Between 2022 and 2024, Georgia recorded negative natural population growth, totalling 13,800 people. Nevertheless, the country's overall population continued to increase, rising by 169,900 between January 1, 2022, and January 1, 2025. This population change reflects the combined impact of demographic processes.It is noteworthy that between 2015 and 2025, population growth was concentrated mainly in several regions – Tbilisi, the Autonomous Republic of Adjara and Kvemo Kartli. Population numbers declined in the remaining regions, while the population of Mtskheta-Mtianeti remained virtually unchanged.Urbanisation TrendsBetween 2015 and 2025, Georgia also recorded an increase in urbanisation.As of January 1, 2015, 2,135,600 people lived in urban settlements, accounting for 57.4% of the country's population. By 2025, the urban population had increased to 2,445,400, representing 62.2% of the total population. Accordingly, the urbanisation rate increased by 4.8 percentage points over the 2015–2025 period.During the same period, the population living in urban settlements increased by 309,800 people, or 14.5%, while the rural population declined by 101,300 people, or 6.4%.Thus, Georgia's overall population growth between 2015 and 2025 was entirely driven by an increase in the urban population, while rural settlements experienced a downward trend.Population Structure by Sex and AgeAlongside population growth, Georgia's age and sex structure also changed between 2015 and 2025.The male population increased from 1,777,100 to 1,881,400, while the female population grew from 1,944,800 to 2,049,000. Growth was almost equal for both sexes. As a result, the share of men increased from 47.7% to 47.9%, while the share of women declined from 52.3% to 52.1%. The number of men per 100 women increased from 91.4 to 91.8, indicating a slight reduction in the gender imbalance.The most notable change in the age structure was the increase in the elderly population. The number of people aged 65 and over rose from 531,300 to 690,400, an increase of 159,100, or 29.9%. Their share of the total population increased from 14.3% to 17.6%.The population aged 0–14 increased from 702,800 to 773,300, with its share rising from 18.9% to 19.7%. Meanwhile, despite overall population growth, the population aged 15–64 declined from 2,487,800 to 2,466,700, a decrease of 21,100 people. Its share of the total population fell from 66.8% to 62.8%.International MigrationAccording to Geostat, Georgia recorded a cumulative positive net migration balance of 212,700 people between 2015 and 2024.Between 2015 and 2019, migration flows remained relatively stable. The number of immigrants ranged from 84,300 to 94,100, while the number of emigrants fluctuated between 75,700 and 90,800. Consequently, net migration remained relatively low but consistently positive, ranging from 1,100 to 8,600 people.Migration flows changed significantly in 2020–2021. In 2020, the number of emigrants declined to 58,000, resulting in positive net migration of 19,100 people. In 2021, however, the country recorded a negative net migration balance of 11,000, an unprecedented development during the reporting period.A sharp increase in migration activity and a significant positive net migration balance were recorded in 2022–2024. In 2022, the number of immigrants reached 200,200, while net migration stood at 89,000, the highest figure recorded during the reporting period.In 2023 and 2024, net migration amounted to 54,800 and 40,000 people, respectively. Combined, the 2022–2024 period accounted for approximately 86% of Georgia's cumulative positive net migration balance recorded between 2015 and 2024.

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According to Khutsishvili, Georgia’s real economic growth forecast for 2027 is based on conservative assumptions and stands at 5%. Over the medium term, economic growth is projected at 5.2–5.3%. He noted that these forecasts are fully in line with projections by international financial institutions.Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 8.9% in 2027, reaching GEL 126.4 billion. In subsequent years, nominal growth is projected to average 8.5%, with Georgia’s economy expected to exceed GEL 161 billion by 2030. GDP per capita is forecast to exceed $12,000 by the end of 2027 and $15,000 by 2030.Inflation is expected to follow a downward trend next year and approach its target level by the end of 2027.According to the Finance Minister, one of the major structural challenges facing Georgia’s economy – the current account deficit – has improved significantly in recent years. Last year, it stood at a historically low level of around 2.9% of GDP. The indicator is projected to improve further to 2.4% in the current year, while the current account deficit forecast for 2027 stands at 2.6%.The budget deficit is planned at 2.5% of GDP in 2027, with a slight downward trend in subsequent years, declining to 2.2%.Government debt is projected to remain at 31.1% of GDP throughout 2027–2030, which represents a safe level.Total consolidated budget revenues for 2027 are planned at GEL 38.363 billion, while consolidated budget expenditures are projected at GEL 38.243 billion.

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Additionally, a 20% supplement is provided for over 50,000 individuals in this category who reside in high-mountainous settlements;For 440,000 beneficiaries under the age of 70, the pension will increase by GEL 45, bringing it to GEL415. A 20% supplement is provided for 36,000 beneficiaries living in high-mountainous settlements;In line with indexation and pension increases, the social package for over 130,000 persons with disabilities is also being increased; an additional GEL81 million has been allocated for this purpose, bringing the total to GEL640 million;Funding for healthcare programs has increased by ₾244 million, exceeding GEL2.445 billion. This includes funding for the Universal Healthcare Program, which serves over 790,000 beneficiaries annually, amounting to 1.634 billion GEL. Within this allocation, provision is made for salary increases for emergency medical personnel, as well as for rural doctors and nurses;The budget for the Social Rehabilitation and Child Care Program has been increased by more than 34 million GEL, reaching a total of 159 million GEL;More than 147 million GEL has been allocated for supplements designated for residents of high-mountainous settlements. In total, over 175,000 beneficiaries receive various forms of these supplements;Funding for the co-financing of the funded pension scheme will increase by 60 million GEL next year. In 2027, the state budget contribution for 850,000 beneficiaries will amount to 600 million GEL.

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More than 300 million GEL allocated for salary increases for over 75,000 individuals employed in the defense and security sectors; Over 150 million GEL for salary increases for nearly 60,000 public school teachers; 60 million GEL for salary increases for over 40,000 kindergarten staff members; More than 40 million GEL for salary increases for approximately 35,000 individuals employed in the fields of culture and sports; Over 15 million GEL for salary increases for emergency medical personnel, as well as rural doctors and nurses, totaling more than 7,000 individuals; Up to 250 million GEL in total for salary increases for individuals employed in other state agencies and municipal services.

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Minister of Finance Lasha Khutsishvili announced this while presenting the draft 2027 state budget to Parliament.According to the draft budget, funding for the Ministry of Education and Science will increase by more than 298 million GEL compared to the current year, surpassing 3 billion GEL. Furthermore, taking into account the funding for educational infrastructure and student transportation, a total of 3.71 billion GEL will be allocated to programs in the fields of education, science, and youth.Of the total allocations for the Ministry of Education, more than 1.95 billion GEL will be directed toward school funding. Over 560,000 students receive school education services. Funding for schools is set to increase by more than 190 million GEL compared to the current year, which will allow for salary increases for over 70,000 teachers and administrative staff.Additionally, starting in September of next year, the supplement for more than 30,000 homeroom teachers in public schools is set to be doubled. Funding for other general education programs amounts to 284 million GEL.For vocational education, including planned construction and rehabilitation works - 263 million GEL has been allocated, which will provide 45,000 citizens with the opportunity to pursue vocational education. Funding for higher education is set at 267 million GEL, of which 105 million GEL will be allocated to the tuition-free program at state universities. This year, more than 20,000 students enrolled in their first year under this program. Funding for science amounts to 97 million GEL, while programs to support youth account for over 26 million GEL. As part of the latter, the construction of new youth camps will begin in Tskhvarichamia and Bakhmaro.Regarding funding for the healthcare and social sectors, the 2027 budget allocates more than 10 billion 907 million GEL to the Ministry, an increase of over 1 billion 238 million GEL compared to the current year's figure.Of this amount, 5 billion 700 million GEL will be directed toward pension provision, which is 685 million GEL more than the funding allocated for the current year. 1.994 billion GEL is allocated for various social programs, while funding for healthcare programs exceeds 2.462 billion GEL—an increase of 243 million GEL.145 million GEL is earmarked for the rehabilitation and equipping of medical facilities, which is 65 million GEL more than the figure for the current year. Next year, the construction of a hospital for the Center for Mental Health and Prevention of Drug Addiction will commence under this program. Furthermore, over 418 million GEL is allocated to support internally displaced persons (IDPs) and migrants.Capital Expenditures – Over 8.4 Billion GELMore than 8.4 billion GEL from the 2027 consolidated budget will be directed toward capital expenditures. The primary areas of funding include:Municipal infrastructure – over 2.8 billion GEL;Road infrastructure – over 1.38 billion GEL, including 773 million GEL for the construction of high-speed highways; Educational infrastructure – 830 million GEL;Water supply and sanitation – 350 million GEL. Additionally, 280 million GEL will be allocated to the United Water Supply Company this year, with the corresponding works to be carried out in 2027;Energy infrastructure – 230 million GEL, including for the construction of energy storage facilities. An additional 55 million GEL will be allocated this year to resume gasification efforts in the regions;Sports infrastructure – 310 million GEL;Tourism infrastructure – 100 million GEL. More than 80 million GEL will be allocated this year to fund development works for mountain resorts scheduled for 2027;Resettlement of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and migrants – 408 million GEL, an increase of 140 million GEL compared to the previous draft budget;Healthcare infrastructure – 140 million GEL;Land reclamation (irrigation and drainage) systems – 85 million GEL. Additionally, 70 million GEL will be allocated in 2026 for projects to be carried out in the following year;Solid waste management projects – over 110 million GEL;Police, state security, and defense – 882 million GEL;Increasing the capacity of Georgian Railways – 250 million GEL;Modernization of the Tbilisi Metro – 125 million GEL;Bringing internet access to villages – 107 million GEL for the construction of a fiber-optic network;Other capital expenditures – 303 million GEL.According to the Minister, additional funding has also been earmarked for a new government initiative aimed at providing housing for internally displaced persons (IDPs). Specifically, more than 100 million GEL will be directed toward this effort in the current year, while over 16,000 families are set to receive compensation between 2026 and 2027.Furthermore, to cover the work to be carried out in 2027 as part of the construction of the Anaklia Port an additional 125 million GEL will be allocated for financing this year.

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Of this total, 618.2 thousand trips abroad were made by Georgian resident visitors, representing a 3.1% increase over the figure for the corresponding period in 2025.Georgian resident visitors undertook 428.3 thousand "tourist-type" trips abroad, an increase of 3.8% compared to the same period of the previous year.The majority of these trips (45.3%) were made by Georgian resident visitors aged 31–50, while women accounted for 46.9% of the total number of trips. In Q3 2026, the largest share of visits (35.7%) was made for the purpose of visiting friends or relatives.According to Geostat data, the majority of visits were to Turkey and the Russian Federation, amounting to 204.6 thousand and 112 thousand visits, respectively.The average number of nights spent during visits in Q3 2026 was 7.80, which is 1.3% lower than the figure recorded in Q3 2025 (7.90 nights). 97.3% of the visits were repeat visits.Expenditures incurred during visits in Q3 2026 totaled ₾835.2 million, an increase of 19.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. The average expenditure per visit rose by 15.8% compared to Q3 2025, reaching 1,351.0 GEL.

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From January through October, the portfolios recorded the following returns: Conservative Portfolio: 8.60% (real return: 2.85%) Balanced Portfolio: 8.11% (real return: 2.38%) Dynamic Portfolio: 7.41% (real return: 1.72%) October brought mixed monthly results as concerns over the financing of AI investment weighed on international equity markets. Domestic fixed-income instruments contributed positively, while the Georgian lari’s 0.23% appreciation against the US dollar reduced returns on foreign currency-denominated assets.Consequently, the Conservative portfolio led October performance with a 0.14% gain. The Balanced and Dynamic portfolios, with higher allocations to international equities, declined by 0.59% and 1.34%, respectively.Despite the weak result in October, the Dynamic portfolio continues to lead in since-inception annualized return with nominal 12.86% (real annualized return: 8.42%), compared with 12.21% (real: 7.80%) for the Balanced portfolio and 10.16% (real: 4.25%) for the Conservative portfolio.As of the end of October, total assets of the Pension Fund of Georgia exceeded GEL 10.2 billion, with cumulative investment returns approaching GEL 3.0 billion.The number of participants enrolled in the pension scheme is 1 million 787 thousand people.As of October 31, 2026, 38,186 people benefited from the accumulative pension, and 201,645,743.53 GEL was issued to them as pensions.

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During the meeting, the parties discussed Georgia's economic development trends, inflation dynamics, monetary policy, the state of the external sector, and financial sector stability. Particular attention was paid to the global economic environment and the impact of geopolitical developments on the Georgian economy.Natia Turnava briefed the mission members on the country's macroeconomic situation and key economic indicators. She highlighted the growth in international reserves, which have reached a historic high of USD 8.25 billion. The positive dynamics in the external sector were also discussed. In 2025, the current account deficit declined to a historic low of 2.9% of GDP, while in the first half of 2026, according to preliminary data, it stood at 2.5% of GDP.Natia Turnava also discussed the latest inflation trends. She noted that annual inflation stood at 5.9% in October 2026. The increase in inflation is primarily driven by geopolitical factors, particularly higher energy prices, which continue to make a significant contribution to inflation. The NBG maintains a tight monetary policy stance and stands ready to take appropriate action, if necessary, in light of inflationary risks.As part of the IMF mission, the macroeconomic situation in Georgia, the country's fiscal and monetary policies, and its economic development prospects will be assessed.The meeting with the IMF delegation was also attended by Vice Governors of the National Bank of Georgia Ekaterine Mikabadze and Nino Jeladze, Executive Director Beka Dotchviri, IMF Resident Representative in Georgia Andrew Jewell and heads of departments of the NBG.

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