Tbilisi (GBC) - Against the backdrop of increased turbulence, economic growth in 2025 and 2026 will decrease to 3% and 3.5%, respectively, - the NBG notes in its monetary policy statement dated on 29/01.
NBG’s latest forecast misses the NBG's October expectations, when it increased the economic growth forecast for 2024 from 6.8% to 8.5%. It set the 2025 forecast at 5%.
The newly published report of the MPC notes that in the conditions of increased uncertainties and increased inflationary risks, the rate (8%), which was maintained by the MPC decision of 29/01, will not change in the next 2 quarters.
Which somewhat coincides with the NBG's October mood. The October report of the MP also included arguments for the appropriateness of maintaining 8%. And if factors influencing inflation expectations in the direction of growth are again revealed, it may be necessary to tighten monetary policy further or maintain the current position for a longer period.