NBG decided to keep monetary policy rate unchanged at 8%
According to the NBG, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle
East and substantial disruptions to transit through the Strait of
Hormuz have temporarily disrupted traditional supply chains. On the
one hand, these developments have already led to a marked increase in
energy and shipping costs across international markets. On the other
hand, if these dynamics persist, they could increase the risk of
inflationary processes becoming more broad-based globally. Notably,
before the escalation of geopolitical tensions, inflation dynamics
were broadly in line with the NBG’s central scenario, under which
inflation was expected to converge to the 3 per cent target from the
second quarter of 2026 as temporary factors faded. Headline inflation
in February 2026 stood at 4.6 per cent, as expected. Importantly, the
contribution of food prices to inflation has begun to moderate, while
measures of sticky prices and inflation expectations have remained
broadly anchored around the target.However, amid ongoing geopolitical
developments, the recent rise in oil prices has already been partially
transmitted to the Georgian market and is expected to put upward
pressure on headline inflation in March.Accordingly, under the NBG’s
updated assessment, inflation is expected to be higher than in the
central scenario in the short term. However, over the medium term, the
projected path of inflation largely depends on the intensity and
persistence of global inflationary pressures, which remain subject to
considerable uncertainty,” the NBG has said.According to the
Monetary Policy Committee’s assessment, the situation has shifted
from the latest published central scenario to a high-inflation risk
scenario, one of the key risks of which envisages higher oil prices
amid escalating geopolitical tensions.“Notably, the severity and
duration of inflationary pressures on the Georgian economy stemming
from the geopolitical situation will largely depend on how these
processes evolve going forward. It is also important to note that,
despite recent developments, the sovereign risk premium indicator for
Georgia has remained broadly stable at low levels, which, in turn,
helps mitigate the impact of the external shock,” the NBG said.At
this meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee also discussed high- and
low-inflation risks relevant to the current situation.“Specifically,
sustained high levels of energy prices would raise shipping and
production costs globally, generating additional supply-side shocks.
Under conditions of successive shocks, the risk of second-round
inflationary effects also increases. In response to these
developments, central banks in advanced economies may adjust monetary
policy toward a tighter stance, which, in turn, could trigger capital
outflows from emerging economies. Taking these factors into account,
the risks of imported inflation in Georgia are expected to rise.
Should these risks materialise, fundamental processes would
necessitate a higher trajectory for the monetary policy rate.On the
other hand, there are also signs of the realisation of low-inflation
risks. In particular, inflationary pressures arising from geopolitical
factors could be temporary. If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are
resolved relatively quickly and supply from other oil-producing
countries increases, energy prices may decline sharply from their
peaks. Moreover, if Georgia’s sovereign risk premium remains low for
an extended period, the external balance could further improve,
exerting downward pressure on inflation. The realisation of low
inflation risks would imply the possibility of easing the monetary
policy stance.As a result of the ongoing macroeconomic analysis and
consideration of existing risks, the MPC considered it optimal to
leave the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8 per cent. Amid
heightened uncertainty, the NBG will continue to actively monitor
ongoing developments and the intensity of their transmission to the
domestic market. If inflationary shocks stemming from the geopolitical
situation persist and/or their scale amplifies the risks of
second-round effects, the MPC stands ready to maintain the current
tight stance for longer than expected and, if necessary, to tighten it
further,” the National Bank of Georgia has said.The next meeting of
the Monetary Policy Committee will be held on May 6, 2026.
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