Tbilisi (GBC) - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has updated its 2026 economic outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific, including the Caucasus, Central and West Asia. According to the document, the bank has kept Georgia’s economic growth forecast unchanged at 5.5%, but has downgraded overall global and regional expectations.
The new report projects ADB member countries to grow by 4.9% in 2026, down 0.2 percentage points from its April forecast. The bank attributes the decline to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, disruptions in energy markets and inflationary risks from rising fuel prices. As for the following year, 2027, the global growth forecast remains unchanged at 5.1%, which indicates a gradual weakening of this pressure.
In the Caucasus and Central Asia region, the economy is forecast to grow by 3.8% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. The deterioration in regional indicators occurred mainly at the expense of several neighboring countries:
- Armenia: Growth forecast reduced from 5.5% to 5%, which is related to new trade restrictions imposed by Russia.
- Turkey: Forecast reduced from 3.6% to 3.1% due to high fuel and fertilizer prices.
- Turkmenistan: Expectations decreased to 6.3%, as the use of alternative trade routes bypassing Iran increased transportation costs.
For other countries in the region, like Georgia, the ADB left its expectations unchanged. The economic growth forecast for Azerbaijan is still 2%, for Kazakhstan - 4.8%, and for Uzbekistan - 6.7%.
Although the growth rate of Georgia's GDP remains stable, the bank revised its inflation forecast for the country, increasing the figure from 3.8% estimated in April to 4.9%.
Among the leading economies in Asia, the bank reduced its growth expectation for India from 6.9% to 6.6%, while leaving the forecasts for China (4.6%) and Indonesia (5.2%) unchanged.
