NBG: Core inflation is 3.6%, indicating a moderate impact on inflation expectations

According to the Ministry of Finance, the introductory meeting focused on partnership between the two countries in bilateral and multilateral formats.The Qatari ambassador, representing Qatar as the host country of the annual meeting of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), formally invited the Georgian finance minister to attend the event.The sides also discussed prospects for further strengthening cooperation in finance, trade and various other areas.

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More than 80 representatives from 18 countries that are members of UN ESCAP and the Organization for Cooperation of Railways (OSJD) participated in the event, including representatives of government agencies, railway companies and relevant organizations. The meeting was held under the auspices of OSJD and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP).According to Georgian Railway, participants discussed the implementation of international legal instruments applicable to the railway sector, the introduction of new technologies, and strengthening cooperation between state regulatory bodies and railway companies.Particular attention was paid to the electronic exchange of data among participants in international rail freight transportation and the further digitalization of such transportation, as well as improving the efficiency of customs and border controls and simplifying related procedures.Members of the delegations shared their experience in implementing customs procedures for international rail freight transportation and discussed opportunities for introducing and using new technologies in customs and border control processes.

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According to NBG, in August 2026, headline inflation in Georgia stood at 5.6 percent. The deviation of inflation from the target continues to be driven largely by supply-side shocks, with rising energy prices making a significant contribution. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased uncertainty surrounding energy supplies and heightened volatility in international prices. At the same time, inflationary pressures stemming from international food markets have intensified. In addition to their direct impact on consumer prices, higher energy prices increase production and transportation costs and, through this channel, affect the prices of other goods and services. Accordingly, assessing inflation dynamics requires consideration of both the persistence of the supply shock and the extent to which it is transmitted to other components of inflation and becomes embedded in inflation expectations. In this regard, developments in the relatively sticky components of inflation warrant particular attention. Relatively sticky inflation indicators remain below headline inflation. In August, core inflation stood at 3.6 percent, while services inflation was 4.4 percent. These developments suggest that, despite the supply shock, its impact on inflation expectations remains moderate.However, a prolonged shock increases the risk of its transmission to inflation expectations, making second-round effects an important factor to monitor. According to the NBG’s assessment, recent inflation dynamics remain broadly in line with the central forecast. Under the central scenario, other things being equal, average annual inflation is projected at around 5.2 percent in 2026, before gradually converging to the 3 percent target over the medium term.Economic activity remains strong. According to preliminary data, economic growth stood at 8.0 percent in July 2026 and averaged 7.9 percent over the first seven months of the year. High-productivity sectors continue to make a significant contribution to economic growth, partly offsetting inflationary pressures stemming from strong aggregate demand.Uncertainty surrounding the evolution of geopolitical tensions and the extent of their impact on the economy remains high. Accordingly, alongside the central scenario, the MPC considered both high- and low-inflation risk scenarios.In the event of the realization of the high-inflation risk scenario, fundamental processes require a higher trajectory of the monetary policy rate than the central scenario. This scenario assumes that a prolonged period of heightened geopolitical tensions than in the central scenario, coupled with an increase in international food prices due to adverse climate conditions, would affect inflation expectations and amplify second-round effects. As a result, inflation would be higher and more broad-based than under the central scenario, requiring a tighter monetary policy stance.On the other hand, under the low-inflation risk scenario considered by the MPC, the realization of the risks would allow a faster normalization of monetary policy rate compared to the central scenario. Structural changes in the economy in recent years have increased the contribution of relatively high-productivity and less import-intensive sectors, which, on the one hand, enhances the economy’s productive capacity and, on the other, improves the country’s external position. If these structural shifts persist over the medium term, stronger productive capacity would moderate demand-driven inflationary pressures. At the same time, the improved external position, together with a lower sovereign risk premium, would support a stronger fundamental exchange rate, providing an additional disinflationary effects. As a result, headline inflation would converge to the target faster than under the central scenario.Taking into account the current macroeconomic environment and prevailing risks, the MPC decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged. The moderately tight monetary policy stance aims to minimize risks related to inflation expectations and second-round effects, ensuring that inflation returns rapidly to the 3% target once the supply shock dissipates. The NBG continues to closely monitor the current developments and the intensity of their transmission to the domestic economy. Should prolonged supply-side shocks lead to an upward trend in inflation expectations, which would amplify second-round effects, the MPC will continue to increase the monetary policy rate moderately. Once the inflationary shock dissipates, the NBG will gradually begin to normalize its monetary policy stance.The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will be held on October 21, 2026.

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In 2Q26, equity capital amounted to $210.5 million, which is 44.9% of total foreign direct investments. Reinvestment amounted to $300.5 million and its share was determined at 64.1%.According to preliminary data from Geostat, in 2Q26, China is in first place with $219.5 million, which is 46.8% of total foreign direct investments, the United Kingdom is in second place with $123.5 million (26.3%), and the United Arab Emirates is in third place with $47.7 million (10.2%).The share of the three largest investor countries is 83.3% of the total volume of investments.According to preliminary data from Geostat, in 2Q26, the largest amount of foreign direct investments was made in the financial and insurance activities sector and reached $207.6 million (44.3%). In second place is the real estate sector with $119.9 million (25.6%), and in third place is the manufacturing sector with $59 million (12.6%).The share of the three largest sectors (in terms of foreign direct investment) amounted to 82.4%.

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According to the National Wine Agency, 15 inspections were carried out in 5 companies within the framework of state supervision, the purpose of which was to assess the compliance of the technological process of wine production at the enterprises with the legislation. Out of 31 samples taken, no violations were detected in any case.According to the agency, during the reporting period, control was carried out in several directions at different stages: Inspection control: 213 inspections were carried out in 44 companies to verify the lots submitted for certification. Out of 557 samples taken, non-compliance was detected in 9 samples from 4 companies. Clearance Economic Zone (GEZ): The products of 66 companies were inspected by international auditing companies (Bureau Veritas and SGS). Out of 273 samples taken, non-compliance was detected in 12 samples from 8 companies. As a result of the control, 17 fines were issued in relation to 19 samples from 10 companies.“The total amount of fines imposed amounted to 25,000 GEL. In order to increase the competitiveness of Georgian wine and other alcoholic beverages and ensure the quality of Georgian products in international markets, the National Wine Agency systematically carries out quality control. Compared to previous years, the number of violations has decreased, which indicates the effectiveness of the wine quality control system,” the National Wine Agency said.

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Lion Finance Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 136.20/share (+1.49% w/w and +13.50% m/m). More than 169k shares traded in the range of GBP 131.90 - 136.90/share. Average daily traded volume was 51k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 0.39% of its capitalization.TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 51.00/share (+0.99% w/w and +2.57% m/m). More than 220k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 49.00 - 51.60/share. Average daily traded volume was 47k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.40% of its capitalization.Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 44.20/share (+0.45% w/w and -1.78% m/m). More than 341k shares traded in the range of GBP 42.30 - 44.65/share. Average daily traded volume was 48k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 0.99% of its capitalization.

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As of August, Georgia's total international reserves reached a new record level of $8.14 billion, which is $613 million more than in the previous month, and the annual growth is 56.4%. Reserve adequacy indicators have improved significantly - in particular, foreign exchange reserves currently exceed the 100% threshold defined by the International Monetary Fund methodology and remain at 128.2%.According to Ekaterine Mikabadze, during the first seven months of 2026, the National Bank purchased more than $2.5 billion in foreign exchange on the foreign exchange market."It is very important that the long-term policy of the NBG is aimed at accumulating reserves and effectively managing reserve assets. Therefore, when the macroeconomic situation and the foreign exchange market allow it, the NBG actively accumulates reserves," Mikabadze noted.The First Vice President of the NBG emphasized the strategic decision of the NBG and the diversification of international reserves into gold."The NBG's strategic decision to diversify its reserves into gold is quite positive. As a result of the significant increase in the price of gold, the value of monetary gold in the reserves has practically doubled and, as of August, amounts to 1 billion 149 million US dollars. Meanwhile, the share of gold in total international reserves is 14.1%," said the Vice President of the National Bank.

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The central bank reported a USD 613 million month-on-month surge in international reserves, accompanied by improvements across reserve adequacy metrics.“The current level of foreign exchange reserves surpasses the 100 per cent threshold defined by the International Monetary Fund’s ARA metric, standing at 128.2 per cent.International reserves serve as a vital guarantor of the country’s macroeconomic stability.Accordingly, the long-term policy of the National Bank of Georgia remains focused on reserve accumulation and the efficient management of reserve assets. Whenever foreign exchange market dynamics and macroeconomic conditions permit, the central bank replenishes its reserves.As a result of the NBG’s policy, reserve volumes have doubled over the past two years compared to October 2024. Throughout 2026, favourable market conditions enabled net foreign currency purchases totalling USD 2,566.6 million between January and July. Net purchase statistics for August 2026 will be published on 25 September.Notably, in 2024, the NBG took a strategic decision to diversify its reserve holdings by making its inaugural investment in gold. Subsequent appreciation in gold prices has contributed to further growth in gross international reserves. In June 2026, the NBG acquired an additional USD 100 million in monetary gold. Driven by market price movements, the total value of monetary gold reserves grew by USD 135 million month-on-month to reach USD 1,149.2 million as of August 2026, accounting for 14.1 per cent of gross international reserves.The National Bank of Georgia will release updated international reserve figures on 7 October 2026,” the National Bank’s statement read.

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