NBG keeps monetary policy rate at 8.25%
According to NBG, in August 2026, headline inflation in Georgia stood
at 5.6 percent. The deviation of inflation from the target continues
to be driven largely by supply-side shocks, with rising energy prices
making a significant contribution. Renewed geopolitical tensions in
the Middle East have increased uncertainty surrounding energy supplies
and heightened volatility in international prices. At the same time,
inflationary pressures stemming from international food markets have
intensified. In addition to their direct impact on consumer prices,
higher energy prices increase production and transportation costs and,
through this channel, affect the prices of other goods and services.
Accordingly, assessing inflation dynamics requires consideration of
both the persistence of the supply shock and the extent to which it is
transmitted to other components of inflation and becomes embedded in
inflation expectations. In this regard, developments in the relatively
sticky components of inflation warrant particular attention.
Relatively sticky inflation indicators remain below headline
inflation. In August, core inflation stood at 3.6 percent, while
services inflation was 4.4 percent. These developments suggest that,
despite the supply shock, its impact on inflation expectations remains
moderate.However, a prolonged shock increases the risk of its
transmission to inflation expectations, making second-round effects an
important factor to monitor. According to the NBG’s assessment,
recent inflation dynamics remain broadly in line with the central
forecast. Under the central scenario, other things being equal,
average annual inflation is projected at around 5.2 percent in 2026,
before gradually converging to the 3 percent target over the medium
term.Economic activity remains strong. According to preliminary data,
economic growth stood at 8.0 percent in July 2026 and averaged 7.9
percent over the first seven months of the year. High-productivity
sectors continue to make a significant contribution to economic
growth, partly offsetting inflationary pressures stemming from strong
aggregate demand.Uncertainty surrounding the evolution of geopolitical
tensions and the extent of their impact on the economy remains high.
Accordingly, alongside the central scenario, the MPC considered both
high- and low-inflation risk scenarios.In the event of the realization
of the high-inflation risk scenario, fundamental processes require a
higher trajectory of the monetary policy rate than the central
scenario. This scenario assumes that a prolonged period of heightened
geopolitical tensions than in the central scenario, coupled with an
increase in international food prices due to adverse climate
conditions, would affect inflation expectations and amplify
second-round effects. As a result, inflation would be higher and more
broad-based than under the central scenario, requiring a tighter
monetary policy stance.On the other hand, under the low-inflation risk
scenario considered by the MPC, the realization of the risks would
allow a faster normalization of monetary policy rate compared to the
central scenario. Structural changes in the economy in recent years
have increased the contribution of relatively high-productivity and
less import-intensive sectors, which, on the one hand, enhances the
economy’s productive capacity and, on the other, improves the
country’s external position. If these structural shifts persist over
the medium term, stronger productive capacity would moderate
demand-driven inflationary pressures. At the same time, the improved
external position, together with a lower sovereign risk premium, would
support a stronger fundamental exchange rate, providing an additional
disinflationary effects. As a result, headline inflation would
converge to the target faster than under the central scenario.Taking
into account the current macroeconomic environment and prevailing
risks, the MPC decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged. The
moderately tight monetary policy stance aims to minimize risks related
to inflation expectations and second-round effects, ensuring that
inflation returns rapidly to the 3% target once the supply shock
dissipates. The NBG continues to closely monitor the current
developments and the intensity of their transmission to the domestic
economy. Should prolonged supply-side shocks lead to an upward trend
in inflation expectations, which would amplify second-round effects,
the MPC will continue to increase the monetary policy rate moderately.
Once the inflationary shock dissipates, the NBG will gradually begin
to normalize its monetary policy stance.The next meeting of the
Monetary Policy Committee will be held on October 21, 2026.
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