Tbilisi (GBC) - An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Alejandro Hajdenberg conducted discussions for the 2026 Article IV consultation with Georgia from March 25 to April 7, 2026, in Tbilisi. At the end of the visit, Mr. Hajdenberg issued the following statement:
Georgia’s economic performance has been robust, supported by sound macroeconomic management and policies. At the same time, amid rising global uncertainty, notably from the war in the Middle East, the outlook is becoming more challenging. Assuming the conflict is short-lived, growth is expected to remain strong, albeit moderating, extending the solid performance observed in recent years. While headline inflation has risen above target due to higher food and energy prices, core inflation remains contained. The external position has strengthened, with the current account deficit narrowing and gross international reserves reaching historic highs. Fiscal policy continues to be disciplined, with public debt at a low level. Although the outlook is clouded by heightened geopolitical risks—including due to a possibly protracted war in the Middle East—Georgia is well positioned to absorb external shocks, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and policy buffers. Looking ahead, policies should focus on preserving macro-financial stability and hard-won credibility, while accelerating structural reforms to sustain strong growth and create more jobs.
Recent economic developments, outlook, and risks. Growth momentum remained firm in early 2026, before the start of the war in the Middle East. Rapid estimates indicate that real GDP growth reached 8.4 percent in January-February, up from 7.5 percent in 2025. On the supply side, activity was driven by a sustained expansion in information and communication technology (ICT), transport, and education services. On the demand side, private consumption remained the main driver, supported by moderating but still solid real wage and consumer credit growth. Leading indicators suggest that the impact of the war on economic activity has so far been limited and concentrated mainly on tourism. Assuming the conflict is short-lived, real GDP growth is projected to ease to 5.3 percent this year before converging to its potential rate of around 5 percent in the medium term.
Inflation pressures have increased since the start of the conflict, but core inflation remained subdued. After ending 2025 at 4 percent, headline inflation stood at 4.3 percent in March, reflecting higher imported food and oil prices, partly related to the war in the Middle East, while core inflation remained below the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) 3 percent target. Inflation is projected to stay elevated in the first half of 2026, driven by increases in fuel and electricity prices, before converging to target by mid-2027 as the one-off effects of higher food and energy prices dissipate, demand moderates, and the output gap closes.
The external position has strengthened but is exposed to volatile energy prices and tourism receipts. According to initial estimates, the current account deficit narrowed to 2.6 percent of GDP in 2025, supported by strong services exports, lower energy import costs, and robust remittances. Gross international reserves rose to historic highs, exceeding the IMF’s reserve adequacy threshold for the first time since 2022, reflecting sizable foreign exchange (FX) purchases amid strong external inflows and deposit de-dollarization, as well as valuation gains. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 5 percent of GDP in 2026, driven by higher oil prices and lower tourism receipts, and to stabilize around this level over the medium term, as the closing output gap and continued growth of less import-intensive exports—such as ICT and education services—help contain imports.
Fiscal performance has been strong. The fiscal deficit declined well below budget targets in 2025, reflecting robust revenues and under-execution of capital spending, while public debt fell below 35 percent of GDP. The 2026 budget appropriately targets a deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP, envisaging a rebound in capital spending. The implementation and procurement bottlenecks experienced last year are expected to ease, with major infrastructure projects moving forward. The outturn is projected to be somewhat lower than budgeted, supported by higher-than-expected NBG dividends and strong revenue performance. The successful rollover of a $500 million Eurobond in January underscores investor confidence in Georgia’s macroeconomic fundamentals and policy credibility.